विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 11.12.2023

11.12.2023 09:16 AM

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on December 11, 2023

The US unemployment rate stood at 3.7%, down from 3.9% the previous month. The result suggests that the rate may be approaching record lows. However, the question is - instead of showing a firm growth, why did the dollar only manage to show a minor increase? Moreover, it was short-lived, as the dollar gradually retreated even before the end of the trading day. At the moment, it has practically returned to the values it had before the release of the US labor report.

The reason lies in other indicators of the labor market. In particular, 199,000 new jobs were created outside agriculture. Although this exceeds the forecast, it is still relatively low. Considering the population size in the United States, its growth rate, and the level of economic activity, just to maintain labor market stability, employment should grow by an average of about 250,000 per month. Consequently, a corresponding number of new jobs should be created. Since the beginning of the year, 2,552,000 jobs have been created, averaging about 232,000 per month, which is just slightly below the required amount. However, in the last two months, less than 200,000 jobs were created.

Moreover, employment is growing at completely different rates. Over the same eleven months of this year, it increased by 2,325,000 or 211,000 per month, which is less. Moreover, in the last four months, it has not grown even once by 200,000. Given all this, it is entirely unclear how the unemployment rate can be decreasing. Therefore, there are many questions regarding the adequacy of the data from the United States Department of Labor. The fact that these questions are emerging exerts pressure on the dollar. So, it is quite possible that the pair will continue rebound, especially since the dollar has clearly been overbought recently.

EUR/USD exhibited high activity on Friday, which extended the corrective cycle. However, it is important to take note of a significant moment: the surge in short positions ultimately resulted in an increase in the volume of long positions. Consequently, the trading day ended with the euro falling by only 30 pips.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI indicator is moving in the lower area of 30/50, which reflects the bearish sentiment. On the daily chart, the indicator points to a corrective cycle, with the indicator moving below the 50 midline.

On the four-hour chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards, corresponding to the downward cycle.

Outlook

The bearish sentiment prevails among market participants, even if the pair looks deeply oversold in short-term timeframes. Keeping the price below the 1.0750 level may push the pair even further towards the 1.0700 level. In order for the euro to recover, the price needs to return above the 1.0800 level for a gradual increase in buying volumes.

The complex indicator analysis points to the corrective cycle in the short-term, medium-term and intraday periods.

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