Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are relatively few macroeconomic releases scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are important. In the European Union today, retail sales will be published, and in the U.S. — initial jobless claims. Both reports are secondary and, at best, may provoke a weak market reaction. At worst — none. Therefore, volatility may remain low throughout the day. And tomorrow — Friday...

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Thursday's fundamental events, we can note a speech by Federal Reserve official Alberto Musalem, but there is practically no interest in it now. In recent weeks, the Fed has shown only an unwillingness to tighten monetary policy. We have already heard several FOMC officials say that inflation will continue to slow over time, which is a veiled hint that they will refuse to raise the key rate. In addition, the U.S. economy is slowing, the labor market is cooling, and raising the key rate would lead to an even greater slowdown.

The geopolitical backdrop continues to leave much to be desired. Another ceasefire was violated; the conflict has resumed and continues, the U.S. and Iran continue to exchange strikes regularly, and negotiations are not taking place. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed, the Yemeni Houthis maintain a blockade of Saudi Arabia, and Tehran threatens to close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait if Washington exerts pressure again completely. The only ray of hope is Donald Trump's repeated promises of a prompt reopening of Hormuz and a nuclear deal with Iran. Strangely enough, these statements are enough to push oil prices down. But the currency market barely reacts to them.

General Conclusions:

During the penultimate trading day of the week, trading may be very sluggish and lack a clear direction. Volatility may again be low. The euro can be traded today from the 1.1527–1.1531 area, and the pound sterling from the 1.3456–1.3476 area. The most important events this week are scheduled for Friday.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is assessed by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend.
5. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area.
6. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even.

What the Charts Show:

Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals.

Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.