empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
10.03.2025 11:29 AM
The Beginning of the End for U.S. Funds?
Open trading account Open demo account

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for the S&P 500 (#SPX) appears somewhat ambiguous, but overall, the pattern is clear. Looking at the 24-hour chart, the primary takeaway is the presence of a long-term five-wave structure that extends far beyond the visible terminal window at minimum scale. In simpler terms, U.S. stock indices have been in an uptrend for an extended period. As we know, trends alternate, and it appears that wave 5 in 5 has now completed.

The S&P 500 attempted to break above the 6,093 level four times, aligning with the 200.0% Fibonacci extension from wave 4, but failed on each occasion. Given these developments, a corrective wave cycle is likely on the horizon. The U.S. stock market is overheated, and an increasing number of experts are discussing the possibility of a bubble.

Shifting to the 4-hour chart, a completed a-b-c-d-e complex corrective structure is visible, followed by an upward a-b-c formation. Consequently, a new bearish wave structure appears to be forming, with the first wave resembling an impulse wave. Based on this, I anticipate a short-term upward wave (wave 2 or b), after which a renewed downtrend is expected. Another upward impulse may occur, but this could be followed by a more significant decline in the index. My current approach is to focus on the daily chart's structure, which suggests a prolonged downturn in the S&P 500.

The S&P 500 failed to sustain its uptrend, lacking both technical wave-based and fundamental justifications. In recent weeks, U.S. stock indices have been consistently declining, not only due to the policies of the new U.S. president but also because the countries targeted by Trump's tariffs are preparing retaliatory measures. As a result, American manufacturers will also face restrictions, leading to lower sales, reduced revenue, and weaker profitability. What should investors do in this situation?

Another critical factor is the growing global movement away from U.S. goods due to Trump's protectionist policies. This suggests that even without additional tariffs on American exports, demand for U.S. products is already declining. Trump has achieved something remarkable—he has incentivized half the world to reject American goods. This naturally raises the question: What does this mean for U.S. companies?

This image is no longer relevant

Key Takeaways

Based on my analysis of the S&P 500 (#SPX), I conclude that the index has completed its upward trend. Given the 6,125 level and Trump's economic policies, my bias remains bearish. The president's trade wars, tariffs, and import duties are destabilizing the U.S. economy and American businesses, making a downtrend increasingly likely. The U.S. stock market bubble appears to have reached its limit.

  • The 4-hour chart suggests one last potential upward push, followed by a renewed decline.
  • The 24-hour chart indicates the formation of a longer-term bearish trend.
  • The broader wave structure remains clear, showing a well-defined five-wave cycle, with wave five potentially nearing its completion.
  • If this wave structure holds, a prolonged and complex correction may have already begun.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often change unexpectedly.
  2. If there is uncertainty about the market direction, it is better to stay out.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in market movements. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of technical analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
Powell, Trump, and Everyone Else What will change with the arrival of a new Federal Reserve Chair? This is a rather important question, and the answer to it may already have implications for the U.S
Chin Zhao
00:08 2025-06-27 +02:00
1045
Fundamental analysis
AUD/USD. Resistance Level 0.6600 on the Horizon The Australian dollar tested a significant resistance level at 0.6550 on Thursday, which corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 timeframe. This
Irina Manzenko
00:08 2025-06-27 +02:00
1090
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Nvidia Shares Reach All-Time High

Yesterday, the NASDAQ technology index closed the day in positive territory, thanks largely to the rally in Nvidia Corp. shares, which reached a historic high. The leading producer
Jakub Novak 11:06 2025-06-26 UTC+2

The Stock Market Is Approaching Dangerous Levels

The wave pattern on the 24-hour chart for the #SPX instrument appears generally clear. At this point, the formation of an upward trend segment is presumably complete. In my view
Chin Zhao 12:35 2025-06-25 UTC+2

Update on US stock market on June 25. Key stock indices growing in confidence

S&P500 Snapshot of the US major stock indexes on Tuesday: Dow +1.2%, NASDAQ +1.4%, S&P 500 +1.1% (closed at 6,092, within a 5,700–6,300 range). The stock market traded with
Jozef Kovach 11:52 2025-06-25 UTC+2

US stock market in uptrend as ceasefire announced between Israel and Iran

S&P500 Snapshot of the benchmark US stock indices on Monday: Dow +0.9%, NASDAQ +0.9%, S&P 500 +1%, S&P 500 at 6,025, range 5,600–6,200 In the early hours of June
Jozef Kovach 12:37 2025-06-24 UTC+2

Update on US stock indices on June 24. SP500 and NASDAQ surge amid good news

US stock indices closed higher yesterday. The S&P 500 rose by 0.94%, and the Nasdaq 100 also gained 0.94%. The industrial Dow Jones strengthened by 0.88%. Oil prices fell while
Jakub Novak 10:54 2025-06-24 UTC+2

S&P 500 Forecast for June 24, 2025

S&P 500 The new week began with confident growth for the S&P 500. The support from the balance line indicator (the red moving average) on the weekly timeframe worked well
Laurie Bailey 04:44 2025-06-24 UTC+2

Update on US stock market on June 23. US stock indices close mixed. Oil trades higher amid geopolitical tensions

Last Friday, US stock indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 fell by 0.22%, and the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.55%, while the industrial Dow Jones gained 0.08%. Today, futures for European
Jakub Novak 11:09 2025-06-23 UTC+2

Uptrend in US stock market about to crack. Will market maintain bullish momentum until end of summer?

The US stock market maintains an appearance of stability, but the foundation beneath this calm may prove fragile. Indices remain near historic highs. Nonetheless, a potentially explosive combination is brewing
Anna Zotova 17:09 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Update on US stock market on June 20. SP500 and NASDAQ open with gains

Yesterday, US financial markets were closed. US stock indices ended the electronic trade mixed: the S&P 500 slipped by 0.03%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.13%, and the Dow Jones Industrial
Jakub Novak 11:54 2025-06-20 UTC+2

S&P 500 Forecast for June 20, 2025

For the past six weeks, the price has been unsuccessful in testing the resistance of the MACD indicator line on the weekly chart. However, the recent consolidation above the 5908
Laurie Bailey 07:16 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 03:00 UTC--5
EUR/USD – June 26th. Powell's Rhetoric Remains Unchanged
11:17 2025-06-26
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 01:00 UTC--5
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 26. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades
09:04 2025-06-26
Forecast
Relevance up to 23:00 UTC--5
How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on June 26? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners
06:38 2025-06-26
Trading plan
Relevance up to 04:00 UTC--5
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast
12:34 2025-06-26
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 08:00 UTC--5
GBP/USD Analysis on June 26, 2025
19:27 2025-06-26
Wave analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.