empty
09.06.2025 12:55 AM
Euro Currency: Weekly Preview

This image is no longer relevant

Boredom—pure and simple. That's how the upcoming week looks for the European currency. I want to clarify from the beginning that this review focuses solely on the European news background and its effect on the euro's exchange rate. One shouldn't forget about America—not so much its economic data, which in 2025, along with central bank meetings, have lost the market's attention, but rather news related to Donald Trump, his policies, his conflicts, and his decisions. These developments are expected to capture the most attention in the markets.

At the very least, there won't be much else to focus on. Over the next five working days, reports on industrial production and inflation in Germany will be released in the Eurozone. Industrial production will likely disappoint again, but the market has long grown used to this, as its volumes have more often declined than risen in recent years. As for the inflation report from Germany, the market is already familiar with the preliminary estimate for May.

This image is no longer relevant

The European Central Bank lowered interest rates for the eighth consecutive time this week, which may have placed, if not a definitive period, then at least an ellipsis on the matter. In other words, the ECB has reduced rates into the "neutral zone," as Christine Lagarde announced on Thursday. From now on, every decision by the central bank will be carefully weighed, and another round of monetary policy easing may not occur soon.

Based on this, inflation reports—which in recent years have slowed to target levels—no longer play a major role. Moreover, this will only concern German inflation, not the entire Eurozone. Therefore, during the new week, my readers should focus more on non-economic news, as there won't be much economic news to follow.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. In the near term, the wave structure will entirely depend on the news background related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The formation of wave 3 of the upward trend segment has begun, and its targets may extend up to the 1.2500 area. Therefore, I am considering buying positions with targets above 1.1572, which corresponds to 423.6% of Fibonacci's retracement and is even higher. It should be noted that de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the uptrend, but for now, there are no signs of a reversal or de-escalation.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We are now dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, the markets may face many more shocks and reversals that do not correspond to any wave structure or type of technical analysis, but for now, the working scenario and structure remain intact. The formation of an upward wave 3 continues with the nearest target at 1.3708, corresponding to 200.0% Fibonacci of the presumed global wave 2. Therefore, I am still considering buying positions, as the market has yet to show a desire to reverse the trend.

Main principles of my analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often bring changes.
  2. If there is a lack of confidence in the market, it is better to refrain from entering.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget to set Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. Analysis, Forecast, and Current Market Situation

Intraday demand for the Japanese yen remains steady, accompanied by broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, contributing to the decline in the USD/JPY pair. Rising expectations that the Bank of Japan

Irina Yanina 12:55 2025-06-26 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold prices are showing moderate gains for the second consecutive day, though they remain below the 3,350-dollar level. Intraday demand for the Japanese yen persists alongside broad U.S. dollar weakness

Irina Yanina 12:34 2025-06-26 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CHF pair has remained under pressure for the fourth consecutive day, falling back to levels last seen in 2011. Bearish sentiment toward the U.S. dollar persists amid concerns over

Irina Yanina 12:04 2025-06-26 UTC+2

Trump Again Criticizes the Fed for Being Too Slow

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar sharply declined against major currencies after President Donald Trump stated that he has three or four candidates in mind to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome

Jakub Novak 10:59 2025-06-26 UTC+2

Investors Recall the Chronic Weakness of the Dollar (Further Decline in #USDX and USD/JPY Possible)

The markets continue to be dominated by the theme of Iran-Israel negotiations, previously initiated by the United States. Whether actual agreements are reached or not will have a noticeable impact

Pati Gani 09:19 2025-06-26 UTC+2

The Market Has Found a Cure for All Troubles

It seems that the heavens are aligned with Donald Trump's desires. The U.S. President's successes in the Middle East have led to a new perspective on the policies pursued

Marek Petkovich 09:04 2025-06-26 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 26? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday, and the market this week has shown a clear intention to continue the upward trend that has lasted for five months. Yesterday

Paolo Greco 07:16 2025-06-26 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 26: July 9 Is Approaching

The GBP/USD currency pair remained stagnant for most of Wednesday. Let's recall an old technical signal: if the price updates a significant extreme and immediately pulls back, there

Paolo Greco 03:39 2025-06-26 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 26: Jerome Powell Said Nothing New

The EUR/USD currency pair remained completely calm throughout Wednesday. Let's recall that this week began with a storm, provoked—of course—by Donald Trump, who first announced a ceasefire between Iran

Paolo Greco 03:39 2025-06-26 UTC+2

The Euro Regains the Initiative

The euro is attempting to resume its upward movement, although not many economic reasons support this scenario. Inflation in May rose in line with the ECB's expectations, which only strengthened

Kuvat Raharjo 00:43 2025-06-26 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.